Week 12 TNF Prop Bets: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
The Buffalo Bills travel to NRG Stadium in Houston to face off against the Texans in Week 12’s edition of Thursday Night Football. If you’re looking to cash in while you watch the game, here are my favorite picks:
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown
Who doesn’t like rooting for history? Heading into Thursday night, Allen is tied with Cam Newton for the most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in NFL history with 75.
A touchdown in Houston would grant Allen sole possession of the record, but it won’t come easy. The Texans haven’t given up a rushing touchdown to a quarterback all season.
However, the Bills’ superstar has seven rush touchdowns in his last four games, including three last week. The Texans are bound to let a quarterback reach the endzone at some point, so why not back the greatest rush scoring quarterback in the history of the league to be the first?
Nico Collins Over 5.5 Receptions
After a bit of an inconsistent start to the season and dealing with a concussion that forced him to miss Week 8, Collins has exploded back onto the scene over the last three weeks.
Part of his success has been in part of C.J. Stroud’s own concussion. Since leaving Houston’s Week 9 contest against Denver early in the second quarter, Davis Mills has absolutely fed his WR1.
Since Mills took over, Collins has 22 catches on 33 targets for 292 yards and a touchdown, and has hit at least six receptions in each of these three games.
Stroud has already been ruled out for this week’s contest, so expect Mills to continue force-feeding Collins Thursday night.
Davis Mills Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
After miraculously erasing a 19-point, fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Jaguars in Week 10, Mills struggled to put points on the board against a mediocre Titans defense during Houston’s 16-13 Week 11 win.
Mills only threw for one touchdown, and Houston became the only team to be held under 20 points by Tennessee this season. Things don’t get any easier for Mills this week, as Buffalo's defense is tied for the second-fewest passing touchdowns allowed this season with 10.
However, the Bills have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league with 17. Clearly, the way to score against Buffalo is on the ground, so expect a heavy dose of Woody Marks and Co. and take Mills under 1.5 passing touchdowns.
Keon Coleman Over 2.5 Receptions
Coleman was benched for the third time in his two-year career in Week 11 after he was late for a meeting leading up to the contest. While Sean McDermott called the situation disappointing, he said he still believes in Coleman and thinks he’ll learn from it.
In the nine games Coleman has been on the field this season, he’s had at least three catches in all but one of them.
When situations like this happen, teams usually look to get the player involved early and often to help put the situation behind them (see A.J. Brown and the Eagles in Week 11).
Expect this time to be no different, and take Coleman to clear his line of 2.5 receptions.